Few hrs of cycling per year can increase your protective benefit by 26%
Few hrs of cycling per year can increase your protective benefit by 26%, this may suprise a lot of readers but its true. I did this quick study based on HEAT (Health Economic Assessment Tool) devleoped by WHO in Europe region. The study may not be 100% accurate for India but it does gives an estimate.
About HEAT: The tool uses estimates of the relative risk of death from any cause among regular cyclists or walkers, compared to people who do not cycle or walk regularly.
The tool is based on relative risk data from published studies. More details are available on the relative risks used in the HEAT for cycling and walking.
Data for HEAT Calculation:
- Population Size: 10,000
- Hrs Of Cycling : 1 Hr
- Frequency – 100 Days in a year
- Mortaility Rate: 0.08%
- Value of Statistical Life (VSL) : Rs. 15,000,000
*The potency of life (or cost of life/Value of Statistical Life) is an economic value assigned to life in general, or to specific living organisms. In social and political sciences, it is the marginal cost of death prevention in a certain class of circumstances.
Reduced mortality as a result of changes in cycling behaviour
|The cycling data you have entered corresponds to an average of 100 hours per person per year.|
|This level of cycling provides an estimated protective benefit of: 26 % (compared to persons not cycling regularly)|
|From the data you have entered, the number of individuals who benefit from this level of cycling is: 10000|
|Out of this many individuals, the number who would be expected to die if they were not cycling regularly would be: 80|
|The number of deaths per year that are prevented by this level of cycling is: 20.98|
Financial savings as a result of cycling
|The value of statistical life applied is: 15,000,000 INR|
|The annual benefit of this level of cycling, per year, is:||314,718,000 INR|
|The total benefits accumulated over 5 years are:||1,573,589,000 INR|
|When future benefits are discounted by 5 % per year:|
|the current value of the average annual benefit, averaged across 5 years is:||272,513,000 INR|
|the current value of the total benefits accumulated over 5 years is:||1,362,564,000 INR|
Please bear in mind that HEAT does not calculate risk reductions for individual persons but an average across the population under study. The results should not be misunderstood to represent individual risk reductions. Also note that the VSL not assign a value to the life of one particular person but refers to an average value of a “statistical life”.
In my calculation, I havent factored any investment which may be from a group or government to increase cycling. The stats may look different if those are added.
HEAT can be applied in many situations, for example:
- to plan a new piece of cycling or walking infrastructure: it models the impact of different levels of cycling or walking, and attaches a value to the estimated level when the new infrastructure is in place (this can be compared to the costs to produce a benefit–cost ratio (and help make the case for investment), or as an input into a more comprehensive cost benefit analysis);
- to value the mortality benefits from current levels of cycling or walking, such as benefits from cycling or walking to a specific workplace, across a city or in a country;
- to provide input into more comprehensive cost–benefit analyses, or prospective health impact assessments: for instance, to estimate the mortality benefits from achieving national targets to increase cycling or walking, or to illustrate potential cost consequences of a decline in current levels of cycling or walking